1) Dollar-Won rebound, KOSPI volatility increases
The dollar-won (REGN) exchange rate, which had plunged by more than 20 won on previous hopes, closed at 1,456 won last night, up about 8 won from the previous day. BBH said the recent weakness of the dollar seems excessive in the short term, pointing out that the possibility of the Fed’s rate hike is effective as U.S. employment stabilizes, and that overseas demand for long-term U.S. securities far exceeds the U.S. trade deficit. Also, foreigners who bought the largest-ever stock in the KOSPI market the previous day sold more than 6 trillion won
2) Continued oil price volatility
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell below $90 a barrel on Thursday in previous expectations, and Brent crude also fell to $96 a barrel, its lowest level in more than two weeks. However, oil prices have rebounded with some negative reports. Trump has said several times during the dispute that an agreement is imminent, but it has not yet led to a substantial settlement. Rystad Energy expects that “it will take months to normalize the actual crude flow considering the possibility of an earlier date for a deal, but considering insurance and the restoration of confidence in transportation.”
3) Boston Fed President ‘preferred a neutral approach’
Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently agreed with some members’ objections to the wording of the FOMC statement. She said she “strongly supports” a rate freeze, but noted that it is desirable to adjust the wording so that future measures are not overly aligned with the wording that presupposes a cut. Collins said the energy shock from the Middle East conflict could delay the Fed’s timing of meeting its 2% price target, and that she prefers a more “neutral” approach to the future rate path
4) Japan estimates $30 billion injection into currency intervention
It is estimated that the Japanese authorities have intervened in the foreign exchange market worth about $30 billion to prevent the yen from weakening. A comparative analysis of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) account released on the 7th and the forecast of the fund intermediary showed that the market intervention was about 4.68 trillion yen. Following the injection of about $24.7 billion on April 30, the government has stepped in again, showing the strong will of the authorities
5) Trump calls on EU to ratify trade deal by July 4
President Trump has extended the deadline for the European Union (EU) to ratify a trade agreement with the United States to July 4. He had earlier warned that he would raise auto tariffs as early as this week if the EU does not finalize the agreement. “We have decided to give time until July 4, the 250th anniversary of the founding of the country,” Trump said, adding that “tariffs will immediately rise to a much higher level” if an agreement is not reached by then
(자료: Bloomberg News)