The market characteristics are the same. When it is reported that Iran destroyed oil fields in the Middle East and oil carriers in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise and stock prices fall. Then, when the U.S. government hurriedly releases news that oil prices will stabilize, the market seems to be recovering from the decline.

I think the core of this incident is that oil prices are forced to rise due to the prolonged war between Iran and the United States, and this is an important issue that causes inflation, but if inflation makes it impossible to cut interest rates and rather has to raise interest rates, we are most seriously considering a scenario in which BDC (Business Development Company) fintech companies such as Blue Owl, currently called private banking, collapse. The fall of BDC companies touches Internet banking and even traditional banks and investment banks, which is the worst-case scenario for financial markets and the global economy.

The S&L crisis in the mid-1980s was a aftermath of Paul Volcker’s 20 percent interest rate hike as a desperate measure to curb inflation. The incident, which I observed in the U.S. in the late 1980s, was more serious than I thought. The problem was solved in a better economy than by government funding. From these past examples, inflation, interest rate hikes, and the collapse of the private equity market… It still feels uncomfortable to dismiss it as a 杞憂, as it is certain that BDC’s private banking will follow suit.

Like the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, Trump will hold back on his wars with Iran, but I think the lame duck of Trump will come sooner due to the private banking and the Absteen files. …. I woke up in the morning and found that the futures position, which was short near 840 yesterday, was more than 80% of the time when it was low in the night futures market. As I expect a rebound today, I expect another good opportunity. But I think I should go to bed after sorting out my positions because I’m constantly sleepy and not feeling well. It’s the weekend… So the stock market is in a more unstable environment. We don’t know what news will come out from Iran… The country name ‘Iran’ meaning the country of the Arians… It’s ironic that the Aryan people are always in the war…