11/17-21 Weeks Issue Check: Nvidia Earnings

Recently, there has been a debate over the “bubble” of the AI industry. In the meantime, Nvidia’s earnings report will be announced after the closing of the U.S. stock market on the 19th, and all market participants are paying attention as related concerns may be eased or intensified depending on the results.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects Nvidia to announce an increase in guidance along with earnings that beat market expectations. It comes after Janson Huang’s recent comments, namely a $500 billion forecast for cumulative data center sales for 2025-2026. As a result, Goldman Sachs expects the quarter to exceed market expectations by 3% and the next guidance by 5%. It also expects the pace of profit improvement to progress faster in the long term.

At the same time, the market is paying attention to the announcement of details on key growth engines along with the increase in guidance. 1) Progress, customers, and details on the $500 billion forecast of GPU and networking sales. 2) OpenAi’s contribution to sales 3) Rubin’s launch timing and initial production schedule are estimated to be direct factors in the stock price change.

Therefore, market participants are paying attention to how Nvidia will respond to the recent bubble debate and key risks across the industry through conference calls rather than earnings numbers. In particular, attention is focused on the possibility of overcapacity due to the speed of technological advancement, the possibility of delayed profits for companies due to large amounts of capital, and how to mention the current infrastructure deterioration and depreciation processing due to the speed of technological advancement. In other words, Nvidia’s performance is not just a problem for Nvidia, but a key part of what is being discussed in the AI industry as a whole.

In addition to Nvidia’s earnings announcement, it is also important that Chinese companies are performing well, and that economic indicators that have been delayed will be released in earnest, starting with the September employment report on the 20th after the U.S. shutdown ends. This is because Fed members have recently made comments that weaken the December rate cut stance.

*a weekly schedule

November 17 (Monday)
Japan: Q3 GDP, Industrial Production
United States: New York Fed Manufacturing Index
Report: EU Economic Outlook Report
Politics: Saudi Crown Prince Visits US (~19)-AI, Defence Industry
Derivatives: Exchange market maturities such as CME dollar, euro, won, yen
Remarks: Vice Chairman Jefferson (Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy), Waller Director (Economic Outlook), Kasikari, President Williams
Loaded Earnings: Xpeng (XPEV), JinkoSolar (JKS)
Post-market performance: TRIPCOM

November 18 (Tuesday)
US: ADP Weekly Employment Report, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Remarks: Director Barr (Bank Director)
Loaded performance: Home Depot (HD), Pinduoduo (PDD), Baidu (BIDU), Weibo (WB)
Long-Term Performance: SQM (SQM)

11/19 (Wednesday)
Japan: Export-Import Statistics
UK: Consumer Price Index
Eurozone: Consumer Price Index
U.S.: Housing starts, number of permits
Bank: FOMC Minutes Revealed
Bonds: Tender for 20-Year Treasury Bonds
Derivation: WTI due
Remarks: Cook (Fiscal Stability), President Williams
Loaded Earnings: TJX (RJX), LOW, Target (TGT)
Long-Term Earnings: Nvidia (NVDA), Palo Alto (PANW)

November 20 (Thursday)
Germany: Producer Price Index
US: Employment Report (Sept), Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Annual Index, Leading Economic Index
Banks: China’s LPR Rate Decision
Event: China Asia Semiconductor Equipment Conference (~22nd)
Remarks: Director Barr (Reunion), Vice Chairman Jefferson (Fiscal Stability), Governor Goolsbee, Hamack, Paulson
Loaded Earnings: Walmart (WMT), NetEase (NTES), VIP Shop (VIPS), Bed & Bodywork (BBWI)
Long-Term Earnings: Intuit (INTU), ROSS Store (ROSS), Gap (GAP)

November 21 (Friday)
Korea: Producer Price Index
Japan: Consumer Price Index
Europe, Germany, USA: Manufacturing, Services PMI
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index (HW)
Report: Report on the Treasury Exchange Rate Manipulator
Derivatives: US options expiration date

November 22 (Sat)
G20 Summit (~23rd)