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Only a hundred years ago, Europe established a great empire and commanded the world. But now, leaving its glory behind, it is being swept away by huge waves from all sides. These are the four waves: refugee issues, hasty green policies, fiscal pressure, and technological competition defeat.
Is it a prelude to a collapse that shakes the foundation of European civilization beyond mere recession? Does Europe now just end up as a museum for tourists from all over the world? What has brought Europe to this point?
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First of all, I would like to mention the excessive influx of refugees and the failure of social integration. The influx of refugees, which has exploded since the Syrian civil war in 2015, put the tolerance of European society to a test. Like Germany’s “Willkommen” policy, humanitarian values were initially put forward, but the reality was not easy. Conflicts arising from cultural and religious differences have ruptured in various parts of society.
In some cities in Sweden and France, the immigrant population has surged, leading to extreme security anxiety and social tensions. The collective sex crime incident in Cologne also acted as a catalyst for spreading negative perceptions of the refugee problem.
Such social unrest has led to the rise of far-right political parties. The Reform Party of the United Kingdom (Reform), the National Union of France (RN), and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) are threatening the established political circles by advocating anti-immigration and national priority.
Second, there is the energy crisis. Europe pursued an ambitious green transition by taking the lead in responding to climate change, but in the process, it ignored the reality of energy security. In particular, the deadly Achilles heel was highly dependent on Russian natural gas.
Germany shut down its nuclear power plant by declaring a ‘de-nuclear power plant’ but implemented a contradictory policy of filling the void with cheap Russian gas. As a result, after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Russia weaponized energy, and the European economy was directly hit.
As energy prices soared, companies’ production costs soared, which immediately led to weakening manufacturing competitiveness. As a case in point, Germany’s BASF, the world’s largest chemical company, is considering moving its production facilities overseas because it cannot afford soaring energy costs.
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Thirdly, the financial crisis is also a big problem threatening Europe. Europe’s generous welfare system has long been a source of pride, but it is now becoming an unsustainable burden. With aging, pension and medical expenditures increase exponentially, while tax revenues remain flat amid a low-growth trend.
Italy and Spain are already suffering from chronic fiscal instability, with the national debt ratio well over 150% of GDP, and even France, the engine of the European economy, is confused by the fiscal crisis. Just as President Macron faced strong resistance while pushing for pension reform, welfare cuts are not easy to reform due to the heavy political burden.
As the “bomb-spinning” continues to maintain the current welfare with the burden of future generations as collateral, Europe’s fiscal capacity is gradually reaching its limit. In fact, in a way, the European welfare state model may have been a model that was possible only in a special environment of postwar baby boom and economic growth (1960s and 1970s).
Finally, Europe was completely defeated in the technology competition. Europe’s presence in future technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and semiconductors, which are the core of the era of the 4th industrial revolution, is faint. The engine of innovation is monopolized by U.S. and Chinese tech giants.
While U.S. big tech companies such as Google, Amazon, and Meta have dominated the global platform, and Chinese companies such as Huawei and Tencent are chasing after them fiercely, it is difficult to find any significant competitors in Europe.
There is also criticism that excessive regulations such as strong personal information protection regulations (GDPR) are holding back innovation. Europe, which once led the global industry and high-tech industry, has now become a “consumer” of technology, completely losing its leadership in the future economy.
Europe’s current crisis is not just a fragmentation problem; it is a complex and structural problem across society, the economy, technology and identity. Inside, society is splitting, and outside, it is losing competitiveness. Failure to respond properly to this enormous challenge will no longer result in Europe’s “fall” becoming a reality, not an exaggerated rhetoric.
However, Europe does not appear to have the will to overcome this. Voters expect to be able to enjoy their pensions as they have done without any countermeasures, and politicians are afraid of being labeled racist and are unable to adequately respond to the immigration issue.
In addition, German ideological environmentalists are guilty of nuclear power plants, and they are trying to sabotage nuclear power plants in neighboring France. Will Europe be able to make a comeback in such a situation?
I actively sympathize with the content and share the writing of Taehwan Shin [Taehwan Shin].
Since the fall of the communist model in the 1990s, Korean progressive forces have pursued the as an alternative model.
However, after the 2008 global financial crisis & the rise of China, the European model’s ‘falling signs’ are too clear.
Korean progressive forces should abandon the European Model Follow-up Line, consider the changed international-economic-technical environment, and pursue a New Alternative Model.