“Summary of issues that must be known”
1) Japanese government intervention alert
The dollar rose to 151.91 in New York on Monday morning, plunging suddenly to 151.21 after approaching last year’s high, prompting speculation in the market that Japanese authorities may be intervening in the market to defend the yen. Analysts say the impact is due to the expiration of options rather than the intervention of authorities. Recalling a similar situation early last month, Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global explained, “The market seems to have moved alone due to the fear of intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).” Earlier, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters that exchange rates should be determined by market fundamentals, and that sudden movements are not desirable
2) Fed rate cut forecast: Morgan Stanley 300bp, Goldman 175bp
Wall Street banks are now starting to be more aggressive in predicting future rate cuts amid expectations that the tightening march is almost over. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25bp at each meeting from June next year and September, lowering interest rates to 2.375% by the end of 2025 through a total of 300bp cuts. Goldman Sachs expects the first rate cut to be in the fourth quarter of next year, and then expects the base rate to reach 3.5% to 3.75% through a total of 175bp cuts every quarter until mid-2026. On the other hand, the money market is reflecting a total of 75 basis points cut in prices starting in July next year
3) U.S. government shutdown, 24 hours of fate
The fate of the temporary budget proposed by U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson to prevent a federal shutdown on the 18th is expected to be decided within the next 24 hours. Through the second phase of the temporary budget, Johnson will extend government support to some institutions, including veterans and the Department of Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, until Jan. 19 next year, while others will continue to provide support until Feb. 2. At the same time, it ruled out immediate 30% spending cuts and asylum law changes that some hard-line conservatives demanded to increase the likelihood of a compromise between the ruling and opposition parties, as well as new aid to Israel and Ukraine that Biden wanted
4) U.S. bond outlook
Goldman Sachs expects the 10-year U.S. bond rate to remain at least 4.5% above the level by the end of 2027. This is because inflation is persistent and employment can continue to be strong despite aggressive monetary policy tightening. Unlike in the past, it is pointed out that the prerequisite for a steep rate cut to “normalize” is more difficult, and that the term premium may hardly move given bond supply and fiscal deficit concerns. As a result, the 10-year U.S. bond rate is expected to be 4.55% at the end of 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley predicts that the 10-year U.S. bond rate could fall to 4.2% in the first half of next year and 3.95% at the end of the year on the back of slowing economic growth and inflation and the Fed’s rate cut
5) China’s Economic Concerns
Total social loans, which show China’s broader credit situation, rose 1.85 trillion yuan ($254 billion) in October, below market expectations of 1.95 trillion yuan. The government has significantly increased issuance of government bonds to boost the economy, reaching 2.6 trillion yuan in new government bonds in September and October, while demand for loans by companies and households is sluggish. New yuan loans stood at 738.4 billion yuan, down sharply from 2.3 trillion yuan previously. Ming Ming of Zhongxin Securities diagnosed that “credit demand remains weak” and that “there is still room to add monetary policy under the goal of lowering borrowing costs for the real economy and boosting domestic demand.”
(자료: Bloomberg News)
11/14 (Tue) Centi
● a secondary battery
Indian government considers lowering EV tariffs to 15% to attract Tesla’s Gigafactory
Secondary batteries: POSCO International, POSCO DX, Keumyang, POSCO Future M, EcoPro, EcoProBM
POSCO: POSCO International, POSCO Holdings, POSCO DX, POSCO Stillion, POSCO Mtech
EcoPro: EcoPro, EcoProBM
● Robots
OpenAI Director, Seek New Microsoft Money to Build ‘Super Intelligence’
Robots: AzinXtech, Doosan Robotics, Robostar, RoboRobo, EveryBot, Rainbow Robotics, SPG
AI: Mind AI, KT Alpha, Hancom With, Bridgetech, Alchera, Saltrooks, Oubzen, CELVAS AI, MRO, Conan Technology, Polaris Office
● the universe
SpaceX Mars Exploration Large Spacecraft Retries Test Flight as Early as 17th
Space: Kenkoa Aerospace, AP Satellite, Intelligentech, Setrek Eye
● Crypto
Coin: Wizit, Hanwha Investment & Securities, Woori Technology Investment
Token Securities: Galaxia Money Tree, Hanwha Investment & Securities, Galaxia SM, Danal
Bithumb: Wemade, Wizit, T-Scientific, FSN, Citi Property
Games: WeMade Play, Com2uS Holdings, WeMade, WeMadeMax, Netmarble, Com2uS, DevSisters, Nexon Games
Metaverse: Esconec, N.P., Maxst, Sunik Systems, Chips & Media
VFX: Dexter, Giant Step, Widgewick Studio
Contents: CJ ENM, DNC Media, Studio Dragon
XR: Inno Simulation, Neuprex, Namuga, Laontech, Giant Step, Maxst, Sunik System, Skonec
● semiconductors
Padu’s ‘Fraud IPO Controversy’…Financial Supervisory Service/Exchange “Re-checking Performance”
Large: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics
Preprocesses: Jusung Engineering, Wonik IPS, Eugene Tech, PSK Holdings
Semiconductors: Future Semiconductor, HPSP, Hana Micron, IsuPetasis, Hanmi Semiconductor, ISC
● new shares
New Shares: SY Steeltech, STX, Ajikland, Curocell, STX Green Logistics, LS Cable Asia, BI Matrix, Context, JO, Doosan Robotics, OpenNol, Shinsung Estee, Purit, Paros Ibio, Crowdworks, Hansak, MegaTouch, Qualitas Semiconductor, Coreline Soft, U2Bio, Eugene Technology, Sonics, Senyzen
Split Listing: Chosun Inhwa, STX, STX Green Logistics
● a disease
Mycoplasma: Hankook Pharma, Xinxin Pharmaceuticals, Telcon RF Pharmaceuticals, Withers Pharmaceuticals, Medicox, MegICS, Green Life Sciences, Xinxin Pharmaceuticals, Kyungdong Pharmaceuticals, DXVX, International Pharmaceuticals, Mediana, Kwangdong Pharmaceuticals, Kyungnam Pharmaceuticals
Bedbugs: Aminologics, Kyungnong, Faroo, International Pharmaceuticals, STI, Dongsung Pharmaceuticals, Inc, Woojin B&G, Kyungnam Pharmaceutical, Sungbo Chemical, Nubo, InBio
● an interest rate
Banks: Blue Savings Bank, Jeju Bank
Recession: Korea Credit Information, SCI Evaluation Information
● Metamaterial
Metamaterials: Hwaseung Corporation, ADM Korea, Lumens, Hwaseung R&A
Quantum (security): Cowiver, KCS, Uriro, Xgate, Hansak
Superconductors: CCS, Shinsung Delta Tech, Southwest, PowerLogic
● energy
Energy: GSE, Heunggu Petroleum, GS Global
● politics
Han Dong-hoon: Noeul, Chesis, Opasnet
Cho Kuk: Hwacheon Machinery Co., Ltd
Lee Jun-seok: Wilvis, Sambo Industrial, Next Eye
Oh Se-hoon: Jinyang Holdings, Jinyang Pharmaceutical, Promotion Company, Jinyang Industrial, Jinyang Chemicals
Lee Jae-myung: A-tech, Ilsung Construction, Dongshin Construction
Training: NE efficiency, MegaMD, YBM Net
Seoul transfer: Egan Holdings, Appco, Panstar Enterprise, Starplex, Yangjisa, ExaENC, Jinyoung, Cosnine, Coas, Nuri Plan
Civil engineering: Dong-A Geotechnology, Woowon Development, Special Construction, Ewha Gongyoung
Firefighting: Paratech
● Others
Good performance: Korea Airport
Display: LX Semicon
Obesity: Peptron, Ildong Holdings, Ildong Pharmaceuticals, Inventive Lab
Healthcare: Celltrion Pharmaceuticals, Hanall Biopharma, SK Bioscience, Lego ChemBio, HLB, Chong Kun Dang
Oregobomab: Sejong Medical, Canary Bio
Alzheimer’s: Medifron, PeopleBio
AI: Lunit, JW Pharmaceuticals, Curexo, DeepNoid, Vuno, CorelineSoft, JLK
Merger: Celltrion, Celltrion Healthcare, Celltrion Pharmaceuticals
Genetic editing: Toolgen, Neibeck
Internet: Kakao, NAVER
Finance: Kakao Bank, KB Financial, Kakao Pay
Grocery: Samyang Foods
S&P500
5th day line: Above
KOSDAQ
5th day line: below
20th Line: Below
200-day line: below
Lead: Themes
Break, pay, rise and fall, fresh, continuous, symbolic, unexpected, circular
Key news on real estate November 14, 23
“New apartments will be precious.” Under 10,000 households moving into Seoul in 2024
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114060047357
It’s a trading cliff, but the price of the ‘Han River View’ apartment has jumped more…”5 billion.” Reported price
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114060012271
724 households are leaving the notice of missing rebar…LH to activate compensation plan
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114053007064
“I’ve collected 75%”…Special Act on the Reconstruction of the First New Town, which was hampered by the National Assembly
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114060128402
[Exclusive] Internal conflict over Heerim design qualifications…Apgujeong District 3 Litigation War
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114060124399
On the move to regulate the lease DSR…”How to live” by working-class and young people
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114060116394
“Do you have any uncontracted supplies”…Why Subscription Home ‘Unranked Supply’ has decreased
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114050537962
One lease in the 1,100 household complex…From “Reverse Jeonse Difficulty” to “Jeonse Difficulty”
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114050029781
The Tomb of the Unsold, Daegu…Housing Market Recession Is “Current”
https://v.daum.net/v/20231114050130846