The U.S. is expected to lose 16 million tonnes of soybean orders, with U.S. farmers having greater concerns than President Trump.

1. China’s main grain port data: Between January and September this year, the number of U.S. grain ships calling fell to 32 from 72, a 56% drop from a year earlier. This was due to the number of U.S. grain ships calling at those ports since July, down to zero. Since May, an average of more than 40 grain ships have made monthly calls at those ports, including Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Ninety percent of those ships were carrying soybeans.
2. Soybean is critical for U.S. agricultural exports. U.S. soybean exports reached $24.58 billion in 2024, topping the list of U.S. agricultural exports, accounting for 14% of all U.S. agricultural exports. China imported more than half of these soybeans, which amounted to $12.64 billion.
3. In 2024, the U.S. exported about 27 million tonnes of soybeans to China. However, before the fall harvest began in January-July this year, U.S. exports of soybeans to China stood at just 5.9 million tonnes. China stopped buying U.S. soybeans in May. A U.S. market researcher predicted that the U.S. could lose up to 14 million to 16 million tons of soybean orders from China if the country does not re-enter the U.S. market by mid-November. Losing China would be like losing half of the market.
4. Recently, the U.S. has been desperately looking for buyers, urging African and Asian countries to expand their purchases. But compared with China, long the world’s biggest soybean importer, the alternative export market for U.S. soybeans is small and cannot fill the gap caused by lower Chinese orders.
5. Shrinking export markets have continued to push U.S. soybean prices lower. Higher equipment and fertilizer prices and double pressures of oversupply of corn and soybeans have already left U.S. soybean farmers facing precarious financial situations. Longer storage of soybeans in warehouses will be affected by weather and pests, further impacting prices. However, U.S. government soybean farm subsidies have not increased.
6. Farmers are important vote-getters for Trump. Trump announced on the 6th that he would quickly introduce agricultural support measures. However, on Oct. 1, the second federal government shutdown in seven years prevented Congress from reviewing the subsidy plan. Officials are on unpaid leave, with no implementation of the plan in sight. This is further disrupting the sowing plans of American farmers. Many farmers have begun to decide on their crops for next year. We don’t know if things will get better next year or if they will have to shut down their farms altogether. Farmers desperately need answers from their leaders.