[Hamas’ response]

Hamas responded to Trump’s Gaza plan. It expressed its readiness to release all the hostages before handing them over to non-political technocrats. Although it did not mention disarmament, it is understood as an implicit rejection. This is due to the suspicion that if the militants were simultaneously put down at the time of the release of the hostages and the transfer of the control, they would be defeated by Israel in their bare hands.

The key is a sequence. He clearly expressed his will and readiness, but he also expressed that there are conditions for the release of hostages. In other words, the message was that Israel should show a minimum change of posture. As personnel and forces who will manage Gaza will only rise to the surface after some time, they seem to have given the ball to Israel by giving conditional answers that contain positive elements to Trump’s suggestion. However, he did not clearly state what he would do. If he were to find a coined word, would he be able to use “actionable ambiguity for action”.

Hamas’ calculation method is therefore read as U.S. President Trump’s request to step up and pledge the conditions for the release of hostages directly. In other words, the U.S. made the U.S. agonize over the possibility that there would be no more Israeli air strikes on Gaza and that the IDF would immediately retreat to the buffer zone without going through the third stage. Since the U.S. has decided to release hostages and give up its control over Gaza, Trump is asking Israel to come forward as a guarantor to prevent Israel from taking the lead. Trump welcomed the decision and demanded that Israel stop the air strikes on Gaza. It is a welcome opportunity for the first time in a long time since he thought that nothing would happen inside or outside. It is the beginning of another negotiating phase.

Netanyahu’s calculations are getting more complicated and delicate. Netanyahu might have been inwardly hoping that Hamas would flatly reject the offer and continue to fight the war. He might have expected so because he thought that the proposal was too much for Hamas to accept. For Netanyahu, the situation must be dragged out by next October, the day of the general election. A truce means an island for a hearing to find out who will be responsible for Hamas’ provocations on October 7. The judiciary branch’s offensive on the leadership and Cabinet, which allows the most brutal attack in Israel’s history, is burdensome to think about.

In fact, when Trump’s Gaza plan was announced, Netanyahu was reluctant to accept it, as he was in a corner due to the airstrike against Qatar. The 20 points include his intention to build a Palestinian state, and above all, Gaza residents’ right to reside. This is why hard-line cabinet members in Israel’s security cabinet were furious. Contrary to Trump’s Gaza plan, Netanyahu has tried to appease Israeli hard-liners by saying there is no Palestinian independence. There is a possibility that Netanyahu will choose to take back the hostage first, and in the next phase, push back negotiations for one reason or another to seek a counterattack. Therefore, Hamas seems to be demanding a more explicit and irreversible declaration of its will from the United States. The result of a late-September poll in which 36 percent of the U.S. Palestinian approval rating outnumbered Israel (35 percent) by 35 percent will be unaffected. Although the margin of error of 3.2 percent is meaningless, it is the first time in the history of U.S. opinion polls that the difference has been reversed.

Again, the ball came to Trump and Netanyahu, but Netanyahu’s burden increased significantly. Hamas can negotiate appropriately, use Amnesty, splash to Qatar or Turkiye, and then seek a future, but Netanyahu is no longer likely to make a comeback if he is pushed out of this political situation.