2026, the meal prepared by the Fed’s dilemma, is the “Vintage Year” of startup investment

2026, the meal prepared by the Fed’s dilemma, is the “Vintage Year” of startup investment

The Fed’s rate cut was just a stopgap measure.

Last night, the U.S. Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, making three consecutive cuts.
But the market did not cheer.
This is because it was a “hawkish cut” that reduced the outlook for next year’s interest rate cut to just one time.

Employment is cooling, but inflation remains, and Trump 2.0-era tariff policies are adding to uncertainty.
The unprecedented division even within the Fed is a self-evident acknowledgment that they have been driven to the outside world.

Just by looking at macroeconomic indicators, you can feel a sigh.
The won-dollar exchange rate exceeded 1,460 won, and the shadow of the high-for-longer trend became thicker.
It is obvious that investor sentiment in the stock and real estate markets will remain frozen for the time being.

However, if you turn your gaze to “7 years from now” rather than “now,” the story is completely different.

Ironically, the upcoming 2026 will be a “golden time” for start-up investment that is hard to come back to.

The venture capital (VC) industry has the concept of “vintage.”
Like wine, it refers to the year the fund was formed, and the vintage, which has historically been the best-yielding, has always been born during the worst recession.
This was the case shortly after the dot-com bubble turned off, and immediately after the 2008 financial crisis.

Why? The reason is clear.

First, it is a stage of ‘real’ that has been bubble-free.

The valuations of startups that have soared ridiculously due to liquidity parties over the past few years have normalized. The teams that remain in the market now, and that are starting businesses now, are ‘real’ armed with survival instincts and essential business models. For investors, a bargain sale period has been opened to accommodate the best assets at a reasonable price.

Second, the start-up investment clock (Time Horizon) is seven years.

Listed stock investors are responsible for today’s interest rate or tomorrow’s exchange rate. Start-up investment is a game in which you endure at least seven years before sowing seeds and turning into trees to bear fruits.
If the investment is executed next year, Exit will be in 2032 or 2033. By then, inflation issues or geopolitical risks currently plaguing the Fed will be resolved or changed into other forms, and AI and deep technology, which are emerging now, will have explosive negligence in maturity.

The adage that when the public is terrified is an opportunity for professional investors is clichéd but true.

Now that markets are confused by the stopgap measures thrown by the Fed, shortsighted investors will close their wallets and leave.

That’s the right time to preempt a good deal without a competitor.

Straw hats bought in winter are sold at the highest price in summer.

Remember, start-up investment is buying seven years from now.
Next year will be the best year to take the first step on that seven-year journey.