🚨2025 Global Market Risk

  1. Introduction of Tariffs (90%)
    •Tariffs are likely to be introduced, which could affect global trade.
  2. Nvidia earnings below expectations (90%)
    •NVIDIA’s performance is likely to fail to meet high market expectations, posing a risk to the technology sector as a whole.
  3. Re-accelerate the U.S. economy (85%)
    •The U.S. economy is expected to return to life, boosting investor confidence and market activity.
  4. Increase in M&A/IPO activity (75%)
  • M&A and IPO activities are expected to increase significantly.

5.Fed stops discussing r-star (70%)
•The Federal Reserve is likely to stop discussing natural interest rates (r-star), which could lead to policy uncertainty.

  1. U.S. Q1 Inflation Acceleration (40%)
    •Strong economic growth, tariffs, immigration restrictions, and seasonal factors are likely to push inflation higher in the first quarter.

7.Fed raises interest rates in 2025 (40%)
•The Fed is likely to raise interest rates in 2025.

  1. U.S. 10-year interest rates rise more than 5% (40%)
    •U.S. 10-year Treasury yields likely exceed 5% before mid-2025.
  2. Germany’s economic downturn (40%)
    •The chance of Germany falling into recession is rated moderate.
  3. China’s economic downturn (33%)
    •The chances of China facing a recession are predicted to be around 33%.
  4. U.S. fiscal crisis (10%)
    •A financial crisis is unlikely in the United States, but it exists.
  5. U.S. economic downturn (0%)
    •Little chance of the U.S. falling into recession in 2025.

Key insights:
•Tariffs and Nvidia risks are the biggest risk factors: The highest risk is likely to come from Geopolitical factors (tariffs) and Technical sectors (NVIDIA underperformance).
•U.S. Economic Growth Expectations: The U.S. economy looks set to pick up steam, which could offset recession concerns.
•Economic imbalances by region: Although the U.S. recession is unlikely, Germany and China are relatively likely to experience an uneven global economy.
•Rate Volatility: The likelihood of rising interest rates may affect loan costs and investment patterns.

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